Leon Alonso 
Founder
This year’s Oscar race is in its 11th hour. Timothée Chalamet’s warbling Bob Dylan is going head to head with Adrien Brody’s traumatized architect from The Brutalist for Best Actor. Meanwhile, a veritable real-life version of The Substanceis playing out in the Best Actress category—will the veteran Demi Moore be upstaged by Mikey Madison, the upstart star of Anora? And what about Emilia Pérez, the record-breaking 13-time nominee derailed by multiple controversies? Now that we’re in the home stretch, here are the four storylines capturing our attention.
A wide open Best Picture field
The Oscars will be presented next Sunday night, March 2, in Los Angeles. Although there’s always the possibility of an upset—hello, CODA—we usually have a pretty good sense of who’s going to win Best Picture by the time the telecast is a week away. And while this year’s highly-unsettled awards season has made things harder to predict, the past few weeks have clarified some things. Right now, it appears to be a two-way race between Anora and Conclave. Anora won both the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild prizes, while Conclave got top honors from BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild. So who is it going to be? The scrappy Sean Baker movie about a canny sex worker and the Russian oligarch she marries? Or Edward Berger’s flick about the sniping cardinals who all want to be pope? Anora feels like it has the upper hand to me. Conclave, with its airport-thriller source material and murderers’ row of character actors, is the more classically Oscar choice, but in recent years the Academy has trended toward awarding more adventurous films like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All at Once, two projects that would once have seemed too quote-unquote weird for the Academy.
Katey Rich, the Ankler’s awards expert, agrees. “I think whoever wins Best Picture the vote will be incredibly close, and that both Anora and Conclave could very well still be virtually tied with Wicked, A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist,” she wrote to me. “But I think Anora‘s combination of arthouse bona fides — the Palme d’Or win is so, so important these days — and a likeable Cinderella story will be powerful enough to overcome Conclave, which is more accessible but also feels less compelling as a Best Picture winner. Like, it’s an extremely fun time, but if you’re trying to pick a Best Picture winner with real meaning, Conclave doesn’t feel like the one.”
That said: Given the real-life Pope’s current situation, Conclave would make an apt, surprisingly topical winner.
Timmy vs. Adrien
Until this past weekend, it looked like Adrien Brody was going to sweep all the major acting awards this season for his performance as Hungarian Holocaust refugee Láslzo Tóth in The Brutalist. But the entire time there was a lingering question: What about Timothée Chalamet? Finally, at the SAG Awards, Chalamet made his move, accepting his heavy statue with a speech about how he aspires to greatness like Daniel Day-Lewis or Michael Phelps.
Does this mean Brody is vulnerable? Definitely. For one thing, Brody already has an Oscar, which means Academy members might want to honor someone new. And even though, if he wins, he would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever, Chalamet is already on his second nomination, meaning he has proven himself to the institution. Plus, you can’t underestimate the affection people have for A Complete Unknown. (Among other things, it’s an easier watch than The Brutalist, which is the more ambitious film but still clocks in at over three and a half hours and doesn’t have a bunch of Dylan tunes in it.) If Brody loses, it would not be because of the revelation that the filmmakers used AI to perfect his Hungarian—it would be because voters fell for Chalamet’s Dylan transformation.
Will Emilia Pérez get anything at this point?
After the nominations, Emilia Pérez—the French musical about the trans leader of a Mexican drug cartel—was riding high. It was the most nominated film of the year, and looked like it was going to take home a bunch of trophies, possibly even Best Picture. But then journalist Sarah Hagi unearthed and translated a bunch of old, racist tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón, Gascón went on the offensive, making a bunch of ill-advised statements, and the Netflix release’s awards hopes seemed dashed. At this point, will it win anything?
Based on the SAGs and BAFTAs, Zoe Saldaña’s supporting-actress trophy seems safe. Saldaña has long been the frontrunner for her portrayal of singing lawyer Rita Moro Castro, and voters haven’t lost affection for her because of Gascón’s many faux pas. Additionally, it seems likely that Emilia will get a Best Song prize. It’s nominated twice in the category, and otherwise it’s a particularly weak year. (Maybe Diane Warren will finally win, for her song from the Tyler Perry Netflix movie!) But is Emilia still a lock for Best International Film, as awards-watchers once assumed? Possibly not. Brazilian film I’m Still Here, about life under authoritarian leadership, which also got a Best Picture nomination, has momentum—and, in Fernanda Torres, a star that isn’t toxic.
Is Demi a lock?
Coming into this awards season, Demi Moore looked like an underdog. Would the Academy ever go for a movie as gross as Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror fantasia The Substance? Turns out Hollywood loved the satire, blood and all, and also loved not only Moore’s work in the film, but what she represented. Moore sealed her frontrunner status with a passionate speech at the Golden Globes, and went on to win the SAG as well. Can she lose? Rich thinks no.
“Not every comeback or career win pans out — Glenn Close is a very memorable recent example — but given how well-liked The Substance seems to be overall, I think all the pieces are in place for her to win,” she told me.
But Moore does still have competition. Anora clearly has fans in the Academy, which could translate to love for Mikey Madison, who had the breakout performance of the year as the title character. Madison won the Independent Spirit Award and the BAFTA, and while the Academy members don’t love an ingénue as much as they used to, according to Rich, she could still swoop in and claim her star-is-born moment. Also, I’ve been hearing some rumblings not to underestimate I’m Still Here’s Torres in this category. Her measured performance as a woman seeking justice for her husband who was taken from their home by Brazil’s military dictatorship won the Globe for drama. With Demi now leading the pack, Torres might be the underdog to watch.
This year’s Oscar race is in its 11th hour. Timothée Chalamet’s warbling Bob Dylan is going head to head with Adrien Brody’s traumatized architect from The Brutalist for Best Actor. Meanwhile, a veritable real-life version of The Substanceis playing out in the Best Actress category—will the veteran Demi Moore be upstaged by Mikey Madison, the upstart star of Anora? And what about Emilia Pérez, the record-breaking 13-time nominee derailed by multiple controversies? Now that we’re in the home stretch, here are the four storylines capturing our attention.
A wide open Best Picture field
The Oscars will be presented next Sunday night, March 2, in Los Angeles. Although there’s always the possibility of an upset—hello, CODA—we usually have a pretty good sense of who’s going to win Best Picture by the time the telecast is a week away. And while this year’s highly-unsettled awards season has made things harder to predict, the past few weeks have clarified some things. Right now, it appears to be a two-way race between Anora and Conclave. Anora won both the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild prizes, while Conclave got top honors from BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild. So who is it going to be? The scrappy Sean Baker movie about a canny sex worker and the Russian oligarch she marries? Or Edward Berger’s flick about the sniping cardinals who all want to be pope? Anora feels like it has the upper hand to me. Conclave, with its airport-thriller source material and murderers’ row of character actors, is the more classically Oscar choice, but in recent years the Academy has trended toward awarding more adventurous films like Parasite and Everything Everywhere All at Once, two projects that would once have seemed too quote-unquote weird for the Academy.
Katey Rich, the Ankler’s awards expert, agrees. “I think whoever wins Best Picture the vote will be incredibly close, and that both Anora and Conclave could very well still be virtually tied with Wicked, A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist,” she wrote to me. “But I think Anora‘s combination of arthouse bona fides — the Palme d’Or win is so, so important these days — and a likeable Cinderella story will be powerful enough to overcome Conclave, which is more accessible but also feels less compelling as a Best Picture winner. Like, it’s an extremely fun time, but if you’re trying to pick a Best Picture winner with real meaning, Conclave doesn’t feel like the one.”
That said: Given the real-life Pope’s current situation, Conclave would make an apt, surprisingly topical winner.
Timmy vs. Adrien
Until this past weekend, it looked like Adrien Brody was going to sweep all the major acting awards this season for his performance as Hungarian Holocaust refugee Láslzo Tóth in The Brutalist. But the entire time there was a lingering question: What about Timothée Chalamet? Finally, at the SAG Awards, Chalamet made his move, accepting his heavy statue with a speech about how he aspires to greatness like Daniel Day-Lewis or Michael Phelps.
Does this mean Brody is vulnerable? Definitely. For one thing, Brody already has an Oscar, which means Academy members might want to honor someone new. And even though, if he wins, he would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever, Chalamet is already on his second nomination, meaning he has proven himself to the institution. Plus, you can’t underestimate the affection people have for A Complete Unknown. (Among other things, it’s an easier watch than The Brutalist, which is the more ambitious film but still clocks in at over three and a half hours and doesn’t have a bunch of Dylan tunes in it.) If Brody loses, it would not be because of the revelation that the filmmakers used AI to perfect his Hungarian—it would be because voters fell for Chalamet’s Dylan transformation.
Will Emilia Pérez get anything at this point?
After the nominations, Emilia Pérez—the French musical about the trans leader of a Mexican drug cartel—was riding high. It was the most nominated film of the year, and looked like it was going to take home a bunch of trophies, possibly even Best Picture. But then journalist Sarah Hagi unearthed and translated a bunch of old, racist tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón, Gascón went on the offensive, making a bunch of ill-advised statements, and the Netflix release’s awards hopes seemed dashed. At this point, will it win anything?
Based on the SAGs and BAFTAs, Zoe Saldaña’s supporting-actress trophy seems safe. Saldaña has long been the frontrunner for her portrayal of singing lawyer Rita Moro Castro, and voters haven’t lost affection for her because of Gascón’s many faux pas. Additionally, it seems likely that Emilia will get a Best Song prize. It’s nominated twice in the category, and otherwise it’s a particularly weak year. (Maybe Diane Warren will finally win, for her song from the Tyler Perry Netflix movie!) But is Emilia still a lock for Best International Film, as awards-watchers once assumed? Possibly not. Brazilian film I’m Still Here, about life under authoritarian leadership, which also got a Best Picture nomination, has momentum—and, in Fernanda Torres, a star that isn’t toxic.
Is Demi a lock?
Coming into this awards season, Demi Moore looked like an underdog. Would the Academy ever go for a movie as gross as Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror fantasia The Substance? Turns out Hollywood loved the satire, blood and all, and also loved not only Moore’s work in the film, but what she represented. Moore sealed her frontrunner status with a passionate speech at the Golden Globes, and went on to win the SAG as well. Can she lose? Rich thinks no.
“Not every comeback or career win pans out — Glenn Close is a very memorable recent example — but given how well-liked The Substance seems to be overall, I think all the pieces are in place for her to win,” she told me.
But Moore does still have competition. Anora clearly has fans in the Academy, which could translate to love for Mikey Madison, who had the breakout performance of the year as the title character. Madison won the Independent Spirit Award and the BAFTA, and while the Academy members don’t love an ingénue as much as they used to, according to Rich, she could still swoop in and claim her star-is-born moment. Also, I’ve been hearing some rumblings not to underestimate I’m Still Here’s Torres in this category. Her measured performance as a woman seeking justice for her husband who was taken from their home by Brazil’s military dictatorship won the Globe for drama. With Demi now leading the pack, Torres might be the underdog to watch.
